How Can Computer Modelling Predict Climate Change Causing Cascading Animal
Computer modelling has shown the variety of vertebrate animal species found
in locations across the globe could be cut by 27 per cent by the end of the
century. The simulation conducted on one of Europe's most powerful
supercomputers also found that one extinction caused a cascade of extinctions
that have been coined "co-extinctions". The tool found that under the
worst climate change prediction, 34 per cent more species would become extinct
than would be predicted when not considering co-extinctions. What do you think
LiveTribers? How can computer modelling predict climate change causing cascading
Posted by on 17 Jan 2023
Computer modelling can be useful. However, it requires good past data to train
the models. And also, the future is changing rapidly with lots of external and
newer factors which is not taken into account.
Well with something like this we would have to start by seeing the computer and
software used as a starting point, The algorithms are pretty accurate these days
generally speaking but the prediction of 34% is really extreme i feel and i
would like to see how they came to that conclusion. So in summary it can be
useful but i would to see and know more but this ,may be useful in future.
Computer modeling is only as good as the person entering the data. Garbage in
equals garbage out. It's like the weather forecasts, we get computer modeling of
what they 'guess' it will be and a few hours later it changes to something else.
Climate change is a natural occurrence that's been happening for millions of
years with different species going extinct and newer and better ones rising.
There's fossil proof that climate change and animal/plant extinctions have
happened before and will inevitably happen again and all the computer modeling
and gnashing of teeth will never make one iota of difference.
Great, someone with common sense, the data that is entered for modeling can be
biased to achieve the desired outcomes that they want. This is prevalent in
climate change modelling. 2022 had the lowest number of cyclones in 20 years
which goes against the modelling, you will never hear about this in mainstream
media, doesnt suite the alarmists.
Most people just will never take any notice. We can present provable facts
showing the effects of droughts, bushfires, floods, famines, freezing weather
along with the effects of deforestation, mining, massive building projects,
construction of motorways and industrialisation in general - but people say "Why
doesn't someone do something?" The horrendous bushfires of 2019/2020 killed at
least 61,000 koalas. Please say it out loud."61,000" That number can never be
Who is this magical "SOMEONE"? As a member of the Queensland Koala Crusaders and
in the past many other environmental and animal welfare groups. No I am not a
Vegan, Vegetarian or political demonstrator. I am almost 80 and born overseas
like most of our members. Australians can't be bothered enough to join us, help
with rescues, care for orphaned joeys, help us plant food trees, contact
politicians or organise fundraisers to help pay our carers and vets. I and
others continually try to raise public awareness that by 2050 unless you all
wake up there will be absolutely only stuffed, toy koalas left and also
thousands of other precious creatures in this world will be gone. They have a
right to live here too. Who reads or even cares about statistics? We can't even
get people to keep their dogs on leashes when out, or slow down when driving at
night through koala habitats, to even report a dead or injured one which we
might have saved. Denialists about climate change are just those who don't want
to care or feel guilty about the world they are leaving behind. They don't care
that at least THREE BILLION Australian creatures suffered those Bushfires
alone. The Ancients knew what was happening. They left behind warnings but only
a few have cared to decipher the codes and messages left behind before they
vanished during the centuries of Ice Ages, leaving only the ignorant to start
all over again destroying the new creation and its wonderful wildlife and
environment. The ignorant are still with us waiting for "SOMEONE!"
It may give us some indication. No, I don't think it can actually give an
accurate prediction. In Victoria during the pandemic, we were given computer
modelling about the corona virus, how many people would be affected by this
virus and how many people would die. It was very wrong. It just shows that
computer modelling by itself is not reliable.
I studied a unit in genetics and we used a program which basically calculated
estimated population size over time considering the genetic diversity of the
population and things like natural selection, so I guess they would just need to
factor climate change into it somehow.
Yes it is a valuable tool and can show us different scenarios to think about not
the current thinking of just lets wait and see what will happen. It is almost
too late for some, what will we be eating? Sea moss? That's if we haven't killed
the oceans as well.